The Campaign Playbook · The Primary

The platform that wins you a primary
could be the one that loses you November.

To win the nomination you have to be the candidate your base wants. To hold the seat you have to be the candidate the middle can live with. Every move below is you choosing, again, which one you're willing to be.

01 The board three zones · one of them decides the seat

Every district in the game is built the same way. Learn the three roles and you can read any map on sight.

Your base

Where a primary is won. Also full of people who'll vote for whoever wins the nomination anyway.

The swing

The biggest bloc on the board, and the one that decides November. Reliably where you're least comfortable.

The third zone

Drifting, or stubborn, or out of reach. Cheap to move, and it doesn't forgive.

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The November outlook
A second scoreboard, running underneath the one you're watching.
Hiddenuntil the night
▲ The case for watching it

It's the ground you'll be standing on when the general starts, and it's set weeks earlier by decisions that felt free at the time.

Only a few moves touch it at all. Television, if you aim it right. The editorial boards. The party's endorsement.

▼ The rule nobody tells you

Television only helps you in November if you spend it in the swing. A saturation buy in your own base wins you the nomination and does nothing for the seat.

Pounding your base doesn't make a district safer. The game will let you do it all day, and it won't warn you.

The upshot is that you can win a primary in a way that guarantees you lose in the fall, and it will feel like winning the whole time. Trap: confusing a big primary margin for a safe seat.
02 The coalition before a single vote is cast

A handful of moves, and two things to spend them on. You can't have both, and most players never notice they made a choice.

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Dial for Dollars
Small-dollar, your bundlers, or institutional money. Each fills the war chest a different way.
1 moveper call
▲ The case for

Money isn't a score, it's moves you get to make later. Show up broke and you'll spend the primary watching richer people campaign at you.

The sources aren't interchangeable. Small-dollar rewards a fired-up base, bundlers reward an establishment network, and institutional money writes the biggest cheque and asks nothing up front.

▼ The cost

Every call is a room you didn't walk into, and somebody else is walking into it. That's their volunteers on your doorsteps in three weeks' time.

Lean on the institutional money and the grassroots notice. It follows you into the hall, where the people you skipped remember who didn't call.

Run it when your candidate has a real base to raise from, or when you've read the group board and none of them are gettable. Trap: raising money you never spend. A war chest at the end is a coalition you didn't build.
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Court a Group
Labor, the activists, the mayors, the business wing. Whoever this district's players are.
1 moveper room
▲ The case for

An endorsement isn't a logo on a mailer. It pays twice: delegates in the hall, then a free, powerful move in the primary when you send them out to work their own turf.

The group that can work the swing is worth more than all the others put together, because that's the zone that decides the seat.

▼ The cost

You can be turned down, and a room you lose is a move you burned. Groups read your platform, so this is a bet on positions you already took.

Some are mutually exclusive in spirit. Cozy up to the business wing and the groups that were already yours will notice you cutting against your own base.

Run it when a group genuinely leans your way and you have a plan for cashing it later. Trap: chasing the room with the biggest prize instead of the room you can actually win.
03 The war room three weeks · three moves a week

Nine moves, and that's the whole primary. Every one of them is a thing you did instead of two other things. Money isn't the score. It's how many moves you get.

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Ground Game
Field offices in one zone. The only move that buys turnout as well as support.
$750Konce a week
▲ The case for

Everything else persuades people. This is what drags them to a polling place in a primary where most of the district stays home.

It scales with your volunteers, so a coalition you built weeks ago is quietly making every field push land harder.

▼ The cost

Turnout multiplies the support you have. In a zone where you have nothing, it multiplies nothing.

And it does nothing for November. A monstrous turnout operation in your base wins a nomination and hands you a seat you can't hold.

Run it where you're already strong and need the win banked, or in the swing once you've built enough there to be worth turning out. Trap: field offices in a zone you're losing. That's a bigger megaphone for a room that isn't listening.
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Paid Media
Television and digital. You pick the zone, and you pick how big.
$1.3M–$4.8Mlight / standard / heavy
▲ The case for

The biggest lever on the board, and the only weekly move that touches November. It's where a fat war chest turns into a real advantage.

A heavy buy reaches past the zone you aimed at and bleeds into the others. Some candidates know how to buy media, and their dollars go further.

▼ The cost

Enormous. A heavy buy is most of a war chest, and it's gone.

And it only pays November in the swing. This is the sharpest edge in the game, and it's the one players walk straight off.

Run it in the swing, as early as you can afford it, if you intend to hold this seat. Trap: the comfortable buy. Going up on air in your own base feels like winning, and it's how you become a nominee nobody can elect.
✉️
Direct Mail
A targeted drop in one zone. Narrower and cheaper than television.
$900Konce a week
▲ The case for

Reliable persuasion exactly where you aim it, for a fraction of the air war, and it scales with your candidate's standing.

The workhorse for a campaign that can't afford television but still has to move people who aren't already with it.

▼ The cost

It won't move November. Not in the swing, not anywhere. Mail persuades primary voters and the fall never hears about it.

And it costs most of what a light television buy costs, and that one does move November. Do that arithmetic before you reach for it.

Run it when you need the nomination and your November number is already where it needs to be. Trap: using mail as cheap television. It's a different tool doing a smaller job.
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Town Hall
The candidate, a microphone, real questions. A small boost where you're already strong.
$100Kthe cheapest move
▲ The case for

Nearly free, and it nudges turnout as well as support. It rewards reach and authenticity, so a candidate people warm to gets a real return on very little money.

A clean way to spend a turn when the war chest is thin and you refuse to waste the week.

▼ The cost

The boost is small. It reinforces; it doesn't transform, and no town hall has rescued a zone you're losing by double digits.

And it's still a move. Moves are the scarcest thing you own.

Run it when you're broke, or when the marginal dollar is better saved for a real buy next week. Trap: treating it as filler. Cheap isn't free.
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Opposition Research
Bank a dossier on the field. Nothing happens today.
$500Konce per game
▲ The case for

Worth far more than it looks. Cashed on your next attack it makes that attack drastically harder to survive, and lands it across the whole map instead of just the swing.

The one setup move a serious campaign plans around. If you know you'll have to take the front-runner down, buy the binder first.

▼ The cost

A move and real money, and the board doesn't change. In a three-week race, spending a turn on a week where nothing visibly happens takes nerve.

And it's wasted entirely if you never throw the punch.

Run it in week one or two, and only if you're already fairly sure you'll need to attack. Never in week three. Trap: banking the dossier and then losing your nerve. Two moves and a fortune for an expensive binder.
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Draw a Contrast
An attack ad against one rival. The only move that takes points off somebody else.
$1.5Ma heavy spend
▲ The case for

Everything else grows your pile. This shrinks theirs. When a front-runner is pulling away, no amount of building will catch them and you have to go and take it.

With a dossier banked it's devastating. Some candidates have nothing to lose, hit harder than anyone, and pay no blowback at all.

▼ The cost

It stains you in the swing, which is the exact zone you can't afford to be disliked in.

Going negative in the middle to win a primary is an efficient way to arrive in November as a nominee the middle has already decided against.

Run it when the leader is out of reach and the race is otherwise over. Once, late, with oppo banked. Trap: attacking early because you can. You carry the stain for three weeks and they have time to recover.
🤝
Activate an Endorser
Send a group that backed you out to work its own people.
Freeif you won them earlier
▲ The case for

The best move in the game, and it costs nothing. This is the coalition phase paying out: real strength in the swing, hard turnout in your base, or a fundraiser that refills the chest in one turn.

A free move that lands like a paid one is how a poor campaign beats a rich one.

▼ The cost

You can't buy it here. It was bought weeks ago, with moves you spent in rooms instead of on the phone to donors.

Dial for dollars all through the coalition phase and this button is grey, and it stays grey.

Run it every single time it's available. There's no week where a free, powerful move is the wrong move. Trap: saving them for a dramatic final week. The board compounds, so cash them early.
📰
Chase an Endorsement
Court the editorial boards and the marquee local name.
Freeearned, not bought
▲ The case for

Free, and one of the only moves besides television that lifts your November outlook. Win it and the fall gets materially easier.

Your odds scale with institutional standing and electability, so a credible, establishment-flavoured candidate should simply take this.

▼ The cost

Losing it is worse than never trying. The board doesn't sit the race out: pass on you and they endorse your most credible rival instead.

That hands them the boost in the swing while you get a consolation shrug. It's the only move that can leave you worse off than before you made it.

Run it when your candidate is genuinely credible with institutions. It's a coin weighted in your favour, not a free lunch. Trap: the firebrand chasing the paper, and handing a free suburban bump to the moderate he's trying to beat.
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Call in the Party Machine
The voter file, the phone banks, every county chair. Turnout in every zone at once.
Freeendorsed candidates only
▲ The case for

Strength in all three zones, plus turnout everywhere, for free, in a single move. Nothing else in the game comes close.

This is what the party's endorsement is actually for. The rest of the field can only watch, because it's unbuyable.

▼ The cost

You must have won the endorsement. If the party backed somebody else, or withheld it, this doesn't exist for you.

Republicans don't get this at all. There's no monolithic machine in that scramble, so plan a campaign that never expected one.

Run it immediately. If you have it, use it in week one and build the rest of the campaign on top of it. Trap: forgetting it's there. It's the biggest free move in the game and it's easy to scroll past.
🎡
The State Fair
The booth, the corn-dog line, the livestream. It can go three ways.
$600Konce · high variance
▲ The case for

It hits every zone at once, which almost nothing else does. A triumph is a better rate than any television buy in the game.

Your odds ride on reach. A candidate built for cameras should always take it, because it breaks her way far more often than anyone else's.

▼ The cost

It's the one move that can go backwards. Fumble the question, the clip goes around, and you go down in the swing.

A low-reach candidate is rolling a die he's weighted against himself, and paying for the privilege.

Run it with a high-reach candidate, early enough that a bad day can still be repaired. Trap: the awkward policy candidate going because it looked cheap. For him it's a trap with a corn dog.
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Rally & Fundraise
Pack a hall, fire up the base, refill the war chest.
Freethe reload
▲ The case for

The reload. A small-dollar haul that scales with how fired up your base is, plus volunteers that make every future ground game land harder.

Spend a week here so you can keep spending everywhere else. A movement candidate with a hot base can rally into a genuinely big number.

▼ The cost

It's a week you didn't campaign in the swing, and the opportunity cost is a ninth of your entire primary.

And it only ever grows your base. Rally twice and a fifth of your campaign went into the zone that was never going to decide anything.

Run it when the war chest can no longer afford the move you actually want. One reload, timed right, is usually correct. Trap: rallying because it feels good. The crowd is always big, and it was always going to vote for you.
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The Closing Argument
One last all-in push in a single zone, in the final week.
Freefinal week only
▲ The case for

Free, and on a good night the biggest single swing available to you: a huge lift plus a turnout surge, landing when nobody has time to answer it.

It rides on your candidate's best quality, whatever that happens to be, so every candidate has a version that works.

▼ The cost

It's a genuine roll. It can land with a thud, a thin crowd and a forgettable clip, on the last week you had.

There's no way to make it safe. There's only a way to make it matter.

Run it in week three, in whichever zone the projection says is closest. Free is free. Trap: spending it on a zone you've already won.
04 The general the bill arrives

Turnout goes into a bank

In the primary, field work paid out at once. Here it only cashes on election night. You won't see it working, and you have to keep doing it anyway.

And it stops persuading

The doors moved real support in the primary, where nobody had a party label to fall back on. In November they have one, and a field push barely shifts a number. Same move, most of its persuasive power gone. Knock to turn out the people you already won.

The squeeze, arriving on schedule

Run to your base and the middle is soft, and your opponent knows it. Tack to the middle and your base won't turn out. He reads the board you actually built and hunts the weakness you actually made.

There's no version of this where you're comfortable. That's the game.

05 The laws every district · both parties

Money isn't a score. It's moves.

Nine of them, and that's the race. A dollar you carry to primary night bought you nothing.

Your base can't make a seat safe.

Every point you buy at home is a point among people who were voting for the nominee regardless.

Free moves are the whole margin.

The machine, an activated endorser, the closing argument. Every one was bought in a phase that ended before the primary began.

Turnout multiplies. It doesn't create.

The ground game works on support you already have. Persuade first, then mobilise, never the other way round.

Your decisions set the odds.

A handful of moves carry real variance, and every one of them is weighted by qualities your candidate either has or doesn't. Lose, and you can usually trace the line of decisions that got you there.

Now go lose one on purpose.

Run to your base. Win the nomination by twenty. Then watch what the middle does to you in November, and read back the nine moves that put you there.