The Campaign Playbook · Who's Your Mayor?

No move wins the race.
The read does.

Every action in the war room is a tradeoff. There is no button that just makes you win, and no move that is always wrong. A canvass that dominates one week is wasted the next. An attack that breaks a front-runner can stain the person who threw it. This is the operative's guide to all of it: what each move does, what it costs, and how to know when it's the right one. Read it before your next game, or after one that got away from you.

The shape of the race: you take a stand on the issues, court the town's endorsers, then run five weeks of three moves a week, with a debate after week two and a mini-competition after week four. About 30 minutes, three to six players.

00 Before week one the platform · the endorsements
🗳
The Platform
Three fights define this town. You decide what your campaign says on each.
Three callsbefore the race
▲ Run as who you are

Each answer wins you ground in some neighborhoods and costs you in others. Take the stand your candidate actually holds and it costs nothing: the base believes it.

An honest record is also armor at the debate. Attacks on a position you really hold mostly bounce off.

▼ Bend toward the center

A middle answer reaches the contested wards your base answers can't, and you pay for that reach in authenticity. Spend too much and your two strongest wards cool off on the spot.

Low authenticity also makes you easier to wound at the debate.

Bend on the one fight where the swing wards are worth it, and run as who you are on the rest. Trap: bending on all three. The base you sold out is the base you needed.
🤝
The Endorsements
Six groups in town can move votes. Each asks you one question and backs one campaign.
Capitalspent once, here only
▲ The case for

This is the only place you spend political capital, and every group pays out in its own way: volunteers that make canvassing hit harder, a cash injection, a polling bump, late turnout, or a shield against scandals.

Win the right two or three and the whole race starts tilted your way.

▼ The cost

Fit decides it, not money. A group backs the campaign whose answer it believes. Capital only breaks ties between campaigns that fit about equally, and a token bid doesn't count.

Tell a group what it wants to hear against your candidate's nature and you pay in authenticity, which follows you to the debate.

Court the groups that already fit you, and put real capital behind them. Trap: going all in on a group that doesn't believe you. A maxed-out bid can't beat a clearly better fit.
01 Ground game free · three moves a week, five weeks
🚪
Canvass
Volunteers knock doors in one neighborhood. Steady, cheap, repeatable.
Freeno war chest
▲ The case for

Your bread and butter. It costs no money, so you can run it every week without draining the war chest, and it builds real support that sticks.

Canvass rewards turnout, not persuasion. It works hardest where you already have a base to mobilize, which makes it the natural tool for locking down your strong neighborhoods.

▼ The cost

It's slow. One canvass moves a neighborhood a little, not a lot. If you're behind and need to swing a ward fast, doors won't do it in time.

It pays more the bigger your share in a ward, up to about a quarter of the ward. Past that you've already turned out most of your people there, and each new canvass pays less.

Run it when you're protecting a lead or building slow strength in your base. Trap: piling it into a ward you already dominate, or leaning on it when you're behind and out of time.
🎤
Town Hall
Put the candidate in a room with voters. A small boost in your strongest neighborhood. You don't pick where.
Freeno war chest
▲ The case for

Free, and it plays to your strength: it lands in the neighborhood where you're already strongest, deepening a lead rather than chasing new ground.

A clean way to spend a turn when you're comfortable and just want to consolidate.

▼ The cost

You can't aim it. It always goes to your best ward, so it can't help you break into hostile or contested turf.

The boost is small. It reinforces; it doesn't transform.

Run it when you're ahead in your base and want to bank that lead. Trap: reaching for it to fix a neighborhood where you're losing.
🎪
Community Event
Show up where it counts. A small, targeted local boost in one neighborhood.
Freeno war chest
▲ The case for

Like canvass, it's a free turnout play you aim at a specific neighborhood, and it stacks with your ground operation.

Good for showing presence in a ward you're contesting without spending a dime.

▼ The cost

Small effect, and like all turnout actions it rewards existing strength more than fresh ground. It won't flip a neighborhood that isn't already leaning your way.

Run it when you want a free, aimed nudge in a ward you're building. Trap: expecting it to win over a neighborhood full of voters who've never considered you.
02 Money the war chest · speed and fuel
📺
Run Ads
Paid media in one neighborhood. The fastest way to move a number.
$80k to $280klight / med / heavy
▲ The case for

A medium or heavy buy is the fastest mover in the game. When you need to swing a neighborhood now (a contested ward late, a rival surging), nothing else moves it as far in one week. A light buy moves about what a free canvass does.

Ads reward persuasion: they work best on fresh ground, the not-yet-decided, which makes them your tool for breaking into new turf rather than just deepening your base.

▼ The cost

Money, and a lot of it at the high tier. A heavy buy is real war chest that's now gone, so it lives and dies on whether you can refill.

Ads pay less as your share in a ward grows, because there are fewer persuadable voters left there. Three heavy buys in one ward is not three times one buy.

Run it when a neighborhood is genuinely in play and timing matters: late, contested, or under attack. Trap: blowing the war chest early on wards you'd have won with free canvass.
💰
Fundraise
Call donors. Fills the war chest, more when you have momentum.
Freerefills cash
▲ The case for

The engine behind every paid move. No fundraising, no ads, no attacks. It's the turn that pays for the next three.

Momentum helps it. When you're the one surging, donors pile in and a call brings in about a quarter more. Riding a wave? Cash in on it.

▼ The cost

It moves no votes. A week spent fundraising is a week your rivals spent campaigning. You're buying future power at the price of present ground.

When you're falling, donors get cold feet and the take shrinks, exactly when you're most desperate for it.

Run it when you're riding momentum (the take spikes) or early, before you need the money. Trap: fundraising in the final week. Money left over on election night buys nothing.
🪧
Lawn Signs
Cheap. A small bump in the target ward, and a little spills into the wards that border it.
$10knearly free
▲ The case for

The only action with a spillover. Signs get seen from the road, so they nudge the target ward and leak a little into every neighborhood that borders it. Plant them on the seam between two wards you're contesting and you touch both at once.

Dirt cheap. At this price the spillover is close to free ground, and it rewards reading the map.

▼ The cost

Small. The direct bump is modest and the spillover is smaller still, so signs are dominated by real ads and canvassing every time those are an option.

A turn on signs is a turn not spent on a move that shifts a ward decisively.

Run it when a single planting can touch two contested wards at once, or when you have cash and a spare turn to spread thin, cheap pressure. Trap: expecting signs to carry a ward on their own. They tilt; they don't win.
The spillover is modeled on Green, Krasno, Coppock, Farrer, Lenoir & Zingher (2016), "The Effects of Lawn Signs on Vote Outcomes," which found signs lift the target precinct by about 1.7 points and bordering precincts by about 1.5. In Campaign Margins, that makes signs the one action that rewards where two wards meet.
03 Going negative high risk · it can stain you
🗡
Attack Ad
Suppress a rival's turnout in one ward. Costs money. Going negative too often stains you.
$160kless for the Attack Dog
▲ The case for

A targeted strike: it dents a rival in a specific ward and plants suppression that bites their turnout there the following week. Hitting a front-runner in their base is how you slow a runaway.

It hits a deep base hardest. The bigger a rival's share in the ward you aim at, the more it takes off them, and the voters it suppresses are the exact ones they were counting on.

You can type the line yourself. It airs on the TV between rounds, with your name on it.

▼ The cost

Real money, and past a point it stains you. Your first two attack ads of the game cost you nothing extra. From the third on, each one costs you support citywide, and each costs more than the last.

Everyone can see it's you. Unlike a whisper, an attack ad has your name on it.

Run it when one rival is pulling away, aimed at the ward where their base is deepest. Trap: going negative every week. After the second ad the backfire compounds and the room turns on you.
🤫
Whisper Campaign
An anonymous smear. Cheaper and softer than an ad, but it can blow back.
$90kanonymous
▲ The case for

Cheaper than an attack ad and anonymous. It doesn't count toward your pattern of attack ads, so it dodges the stain that open attacks carry.

A citywide nick at a rival rather than a single-ward strike. Good for shaving a point off a leader without declaring open war.

▼ The cost

Softer effect than a full ad. It nicks, it doesn't gut.

It can blow back. Nearly one whisper in five gets traced to you, and then it costs you support instead. You don't control which way it breaks.

Run it when you want to wound a leader quietly without wearing the attack yourself. Trap: relying on it as a clean free hit. The blowback is real and it isn't yours to aim.
🔎
Opposition Research
Dig up a scandal on a rival. It hits the week you play it, then keeps bleeding them.
$120kless for the Socialite
▲ The case for

Plants a scandal on a rival. It costs them support citywide right away, then drips for up to three more weeks unless they spend a move on damage control. A devastating one also knocks their momentum to falling.

It takes initiative. You make the rival spend a move digging out instead of campaigning.

▼ The cost

It's a gamble. How big the scandal is isn't yours to choose, some rivals have less to find, and sometimes the research turns up nothing that sticks.

A rival who plays damage control right away cuts the drip short.

Run it early on a leader you need to slow, so the drip has weeks to work. Trap: writing it off in the final week. The first hit still lands; you only lose the drip.
04 Defense & intel tempo for safety · information
🛡
Damage Control
Blunt an active scandal against you and stop the bleed.
$80kneutralize
▲ The case for

Stops the drip. An uncontrolled scandal keeps costing you support every week. Damage control shuts down the worst one now.

Certain and automatic: it targets your most damaging scandal first, so you never waste it on a minor problem while a devastating one bleeds.

▼ The cost

Purely reactive. With no active scandal it does nothing, and you've spent a move and $80k to sit still.

It's a tempo-for-safety trade: a week spent digging back to neutral is a week not spent gaining ground. And it only handles one scandal at a time.

Run it when a serious scandal is lingering and will keep bleeding you for multiple weeks, especially late. Trap: playing it over a minor scandal about to expire on its own, or with no scandal at all.
🔭
Scout a Rival
Read their books. Reveals a rival's exact war chest, capital, and momentum, for your eyes only.
Freeinformation
▲ The case for

Free information in a game built on hidden information. Knowing a rival's war chest tells you whether they can afford a heavy ad war. Knowing their momentum tells you who's about to surge.

It turns guesses into reads. The whole game is about acting on what you can see, and scout lets you see more.

▼ The cost

It moves no votes. Information only pays off if you act on it. Scouting a rival and then doing nothing different was a wasted turn.

Early, when nothing has diverged yet, there may be little worth knowing.

Run it when you're deciding whether to start an ad war or brace for one, and a rival's hidden numbers would change your plan. Trap: scouting for its own sake, then playing the week exactly as you would have anyway.
05 The debate & the final week one night on stage · one last push
🎙
The Debate
Mid-race, everyone on one stage. Pick your shot and pick your guard, all at once.
Shot + guardchosen in secret
▲ Your shot

Go after one rival's position, or stay above the fray and consolidate your strongest ward. A position they don't really believe lands hardest.

Type a zinger on your phone. It airs on the TV and is in the running for Line of the Night.

▼ Your guard

Stand on your record and, if your authenticity is still high, you take less than half the hit. Let authenticity slip and the hit lands harder instead.

Pivot and any hit lands at about half strength. Counterpunch and you take the full hit, but more than half of it goes back at whoever threw it. If nobody comes for you, you lose a little for swinging at air.

Read the room before you choose. The leader is the likeliest target, so the leader should guess who's coming. Trap: counterpunching when you're in fourth. Nobody was going to hit you.
📣
The Final Week
Closing arguments. Five weeks of work comes down to three last moves.
Spend it allcash is worthless after
▲ The case for going all in

The money in your war chest does nothing on election night. Week five is the last week it can buy anything, so a heavy buy in your closest ward is almost always better than a balance.

▼ What doesn't work now

Moves that pay off later. Fundraising refills a wallet you can't spend, and scouting tells you something you can't act on.

Plan for it in week four: know which ward you'll spend on and keep the cash to do it. Trap: finishing with money in the bank. It's one of the most common mistakes.
06 The rules underneath why the same move lands differently

A deep base turns out. It doesn't shield you.

Attacks and scandals take support from wherever you have it, and an attack ad takes more from a ward the deeper your base is there. What depth buys you is turnout: on election night, wards where you're at 14% or more turn out stronger, and wards where you're at 6% or less turn out weaker. The debate is the exception: its hits fall mostly on soft support. The takeaway: build real depth where you can, because that's where your votes show up, and expect rivals to aim their attack ads right at it.

Going negative stains you, and it scales

Your first two attack ads are free of consequence. A pattern of them is not. From the third on, each one costs you support citywide, and each costs more than the one before. Whispers don't count toward it, but they carry their own risk. The takeaway: attacks are a scalpel, not a hammer. Pick the one rival, the one moment, and don't turn your whole campaign negative or the room turns on you.

Turnout rewards strength; persuasion rewards fresh ground

Canvass and community events are turnout: they pay off most where you already have a base to mobilize. Ads are persuasion: they pay off most on the not-yet-decided. The takeaway: use free ground game to deepen what you own, and paid media to break into what you don't. Running ads in your locked base, or canvassing a ward full of strangers, spends the wrong tool on the job.

Momentum feeds itself

Momentum isn't just flavor. When you're rising, fundraising brings in more, your moves convert better, and late-deciding voters break your way on election night. When you're falling, donors pull back and the undecideds drift elsewhere. The takeaway: a surge is worth pressing, so fundraise into it and it compounds. A slide is worth arresting fast, before it feeds itself.

Commitment wins wards

When several campaigns work the same ward in the same week, the one that put in the most effort takes a bigger share of the voters who move than its effort alone would earn. A little everywhere loses wards to whoever committed. What does fade: ads pay less as your share in a ward grows, and every ward has only so many undecided voters left to win. The takeaway: pick the wards you mean to win and commit to them.

A pile-on helps the target a little

When two or more rivals attack the same campaign in one week, voters recoil and give the target a small sympathy bump. It never cancels the damage, but a gang-up is worth a bit less than it looks.

Now go read a real board.

The playbook is the theory. The table is where it's tested. Gather three to six people and one screen, give it about 30 minutes, and find out who actually reads the room.