The Campaign Playbook · Who's Your Mayor?

No move wins the race.
The read does.

Every action in the war room is a tradeoff. There is no button that just makes you win, and no move that is always wrong. A canvass that dominates one week is wasted the next. An attack that breaks a front-runner can stain the person who threw it. This is the operative's guide to all of it: what each move does, what it costs, and how to know when it's the right one. Read it before your next game, or after one that got away from you.

01 Ground game free · the backbone
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Canvass
Volunteers knock doors in one neighborhood. Steady, cheap, repeatable.
Freeno war chest
▲ The case for

Your bread and butter. It costs no money, so you can run it every week without draining the war chest, and it builds real support that sticks.

Canvass rewards turnout, not persuasion. It works hardest where you already have a base to mobilize, which makes it the natural tool for locking down your strong neighborhoods.

▼ The cost

It's slow. One canvass moves a neighborhood a little, not a lot. If you're behind and need to swing a ward fast, doors won't do it in time.

Piling canvass after canvass into the same neighborhood hits diminishing returns. The first one lands; the fourth barely registers.

Run it when you're protecting a lead or building slow strength in your base. Trap: spamming it in one ward you already own, or leaning on it when you're behind and out of time.
🎤
Town Hall
Put the candidate in a room with voters. A small boost where you're already strong.
Freeno war chest
▲ The case for

Free, and it plays to your strength: it firms up the neighborhoods where you're already ahead, deepening a lead rather than chasing new ground.

A clean way to spend a turn when you're comfortable and just want to consolidate.

▼ The cost

It does almost nothing where you're weak. If you need to break into hostile or contested turf, a town hall is the wrong tool.

The boost is small. It reinforces; it doesn't transform.

Run it when you're ahead in your base and want to bank that lead. Trap: reaching for it to fix a neighborhood where you're losing.
🎪
Community Event
Show up where it counts. A small, targeted local boost in one neighborhood.
Freeno war chest
▲ The case for

Like canvass, it's a free turnout play you aim at a specific neighborhood, and it stacks with your ground operation.

Good for showing presence in a ward you're contesting without spending a dime.

▼ The cost

Small effect, and like all turnout actions it rewards existing strength more than fresh ground. It won't flip a neighborhood that isn't already leaning your way.

Run it when you want a free, aimed nudge in a ward you're building. Trap: expecting it to win over a neighborhood full of voters who've never considered you.
02 Money the war chest · speed and fuel
📺
Run Ads
Paid media in one neighborhood. The fastest way to move a number.
$80–280klight / med / heavy
▲ The case for

The fastest mover in the game. When you need to swing a neighborhood now -- a contested ward late, a rival surging -- ads do in one week what canvass takes three to do.

Ads reward persuasion: they work best on fresh ground, the not-yet-decided, which makes them your tool for breaking into new turf rather than just deepening your base.

▼ The cost

Money, and a lot of it at the high tier. A heavy buy is real war chest that's now gone, so it lives and dies on whether you can refill.

Repeating ads burns cash fast and hits diminishing returns. Three heavy buys is not three times one buy.

Run it when a neighborhood is genuinely in play and timing matters -- late, contested, or under attack. Trap: blowing the war chest early on wards you'd have won with free canvass.
💰
Fundraise
Call donors. Fills the war chest -- more when you have momentum.
Freerefills cash
▲ The case for

The engine behind every paid move. No fundraising, no ads, no attacks. It's the turn that pays for the next three.

Momentum multiplies it. When you're the one surging, donors pile in and a single call brings in far more. Riding a wave? Cash in on it.

▼ The cost

It moves no votes. A week spent fundraising is a week your rivals spent campaigning. You're buying future power at the price of present ground.

When you're falling, donors get cold feet and the take shrinks -- exactly when you're most desperate for it.

Run it when you're riding momentum (the take spikes) or early, before you need the money. Trap: fundraising from behind in the final week, when you needed votes, not a fuller wallet.
🪧
Lawn Signs
Cheap. A small bump in the target ward, and a little spills into the wards that border it.
$10knearly free
▲ The case for

The only action with a spillover. Signs get seen from the road, so they nudge the target ward and leak a little into every neighborhood that borders it. Plant them on the seam between two wards you're contesting and you touch both at once.

Dirt cheap. At this price the spillover is close to free ground, and it rewards reading the map.

▼ The cost

Small. The direct bump is modest and the spillover is smaller still, so signs are dominated by real ads and canvassing every time those are an option.

A turn on signs is a turn not spent on a move that shifts a ward decisively.

Run it when a single planting can touch two contested wards at once, or when you have cash and a spare turn to spread thin, cheap pressure. Trap: expecting signs to carry a ward on their own. They tilt; they don't win.
The spillover is modeled on Green, Krasno, Coppock, Farrer, Lenoir & Zingher (2016), "The Effects of Lawn Signs on Vote Outcomes," which found signs lift the target precinct by about 1.7 points and bordering precincts by about 1.5. In Campaign Margins, that makes signs the one action that rewards where two wards meet.
03 Going negative high risk · it can stain you
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Attack Ad
Suppress a rival's turnout in one ward. Costs money. Going negative too often stains you.
$160kper attack
▲ The case for

A targeted strike: it dents a rival in a specific ward and plants suppression that bites their turnout there the following week. Hitting a front-runner in their base is how you slow a runaway.

It hits soft support hardest. A rival whose lead is shallow and unconsolidated bleeds far more than one whose base is locked in.

▼ The cost

Real money, and it stains you. Going negative once is fine; a pattern of attacks backfires on you, and the penalty scales sharply the more you throw.

Everyone can see it's you. Unlike a whisper, an attack ad has your name on it.

Run it when one rival is pulling away and their support is soft enough to crack. Trap: going negative every week -- the backfire compounds and the room turns on you.
🤫
Whisper Campaign
An anonymous smear. Cheaper and softer than an ad -- but it can blow back.
$90kanonymous
▲ The case for

Cheaper than an attack ad and anonymous -- it isn't obviously traceable to you, so it dodges the stain that open attacks carry.

A citywide nick at a rival rather than a single-ward strike. Good for shaving a point off a leader without declaring open war.

▼ The cost

Softer effect than a full ad -- it nicks, it doesn't gut.

It can blow back. A whisper that gets traced or backfires costs you instead, and you don't control which way it breaks.

Run it when you want to wound a leader quietly without wearing the attack yourself. Trap: relying on it as a clean free hit -- the blowback is real and it isn't yours to aim.
🔎
Opposition Research
Dig up a scandal on a rival. Costs money. Doesn't move a number the week you play it.
$120kbanks a scandal
▲ The case for

Plants a scandal on a rival that then drips -- it costs them support every week until they spend a turn on damage control. A devastating scandal bleeds them hard and forces them to react on your timing.

It takes initiative. You make the rival spend a turn digging out instead of campaigning.

▼ The cost

It moves nothing the week you play it -- the payoff is the drip that follows, so it's an investment, not an instant hit.

Costs money, and a rival who immediately plays damage control blunts much of it.

Run it when there's time left for the scandal to bleed and a leader you need to slow. Trap: playing it in the final week -- there's no time for the drip to matter.
04 Defense & intel tempo for safety · information
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Damage Control
Blunt an active scandal against you and stop the bleed.
$80kneutralize
▲ The case for

Stops the drip. An uncontrolled scandal keeps costing you support every single week -- damage control shuts down the worst one now and forces it to expire.

Certain and automatic: it targets your most damaging scandal first, so you never waste it on a minor problem while a devastating one bleeds.

▼ The cost

Purely reactive. With no active scandal, it does nothing -- you've burned a whole turn to sit still.

It's a tempo-for-safety trade: a week spent digging back to neutral is a week not spent gaining ground. And it only handles one scandal at a time.

Run it when a serious scandal is lingering and will keep bleeding you for multiple weeks, especially late. Trap: playing it over a minor scandal about to expire on its own -- or with no scandal at all.
🔭
Scout a Rival
Read their books. Reveals a rival's exact war chest, capital, and momentum -- for your eyes only.
Freeinformation
▲ The case for

Free information in a game built on hidden information. Knowing a rival's war chest tells you whether they can afford a heavy ad war. Knowing their momentum tells you who's about to surge.

It turns guesses into reads. The whole game is about acting on what you can see -- scout lets you see more.

▼ The cost

It moves no votes. Information only pays off if you act on it -- scouting a rival and then doing nothing different was a wasted turn.

Early, when nothing has diverged yet, there may be little worth knowing.

Run it when you're deciding whether to start an ad war or brace for one, and a rival's hidden numbers would change your plan. Trap: scouting for its own sake, then playing the week exactly as you would have anyway.
05 The rules underneath why the same move lands differently

Soft support bleeds; locked base holds

Not all support is equal. A neighborhood where you're barely ahead is soft -- attacks, scandals, and erosion hit it hard. A neighborhood where you've built a real, deep lead is fired base -- it shields against damage, absorbing only a fraction of the same hit. The takeaway: a shallow lead spread thin is fragile; a deep lead in fewer wards is armor. And when you attack, aim at rivals whose support is soft, not locked.

Going negative stains you -- and it scales

One attack is free of consequence. A pattern of them is not. The backfire on negative campaigning grows sharply the more you throw -- two attacks cost you more than twice one, three more than that. The takeaway: attacks are a scalpel, not a hammer. Pick the one rival, the one moment, and don't turn your whole campaign negative or the room turns on you.

Turnout rewards strength; persuasion rewards fresh ground

Canvass and community events are turnout -- they pay off most where you already have a base to mobilize. Ads are persuasion -- they pay off most on the not-yet-decided. The takeaway: use free ground game to deepen what you own, and paid media to break into what you don't. Running ads in your locked base, or canvassing a ward full of strangers, spends the wrong tool on the job.

Momentum feeds itself

Momentum isn't just flavor. When you're rising, fundraising brings in more and late-deciding voters break your way on election night. When you're falling, donors pull back and the undecideds drift elsewhere. The takeaway: a surge is worth pressing -- fundraise into it, and it compounds. A slide is worth arresting fast, before it feeds itself.

Repetition fades

The same move into the same neighborhood, week after week, hits diminishing returns. The first canvass or ad buy in a ward lands full; each repeat does less. The takeaway: spread your effort, or vary it. Three different moves across three wards beats hammering one ward three times.

Now go read a real board.

The playbook is the theory. The table is where it's tested. Gather three to six people, one screen, and find out who actually reads the room.